Saturday, March 21, 2020

Excellent Article On The Data of the Wuhan Virus With Reasonable Actions Suggested

The best, data-driven info I've seen (originally shared by Brit Hume), by Aaron Gin. 

Here's just a sampling of the information but the article has lots of graphs which are helpful as well.


For all of March, the world has hovered around 1.1. This translates to an average daily growth rate of 10%, with ups and downs on a daily basis. This isn’t great, but it is good news as COVID-19 most likely isn’t increasing in virality. The growth rate of the growth rate is approximately 10%; however, the data is quite noisy. With inconsistent country-to-country reporting and what qualifies as a confirmed case, the more likely explanation is that we are increasing our measurement, but the virus hasn’t increased in viral capability. Recommended containment and prevention strategies are still quite effective at stopping the spread.

Bell curves is the dominant trait of outbreaks. A virus doesn’t grow linearly forever. It accelerates, plateaus, and then declines. Whether it is environmental or our own efforts, viruses accelerate and quickly decline. This fact of nature is represented in Farr’s law. CDC’s of “bend the curve” or “flatten the curve” reflects this natural reality...
To summarize, China, Singapore, and South Korea’s containment efforts worked because community-based and airborne transmission aren’t common. The most common form of transmission is person-to-person or surface-based...
True community spread involves transmission where people get infected in public spaces and there is no way to trace back the source of infection. WHO believes that is not what the Chinese data shows. If community spread was super common, it wouldn’t be possible to reduce the new cases through “social distancing”.
We have never seen before a respiratory pathogen that’s capable of community transmission but at the same time which can also be contained with the right measures. If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible,” said Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of WHO.

To summarize, China, Singapore, and South Korea’s containment efforts worked because community-based and airborne transmission aren’t common. The most common form of transmission is person-to-person or surface-based.

Presence doesn’t mean infectious. The viral concentration falls significantly over time. The virus showed a half-life of about 0.8 hours on copper, 3.46 hours on cardboard, 5.6 hours on steel and 6.8 hours on plastic.

Due to COVID-19’s sensitivity to UV light and heat (just like the normal influenza virus), it is very likely that it will “burn off” as humidity increases and temperatures rise.
Released on March 10th, one study mapped COVID-19 virality capability by high temperature and high humidity. It found that both significantly reduced the ability of the virus to spread from person-to-person....

It’s already well established that the young aren’t particularly vulnerable. In fact, there isn’t a single death reported below the age of 10 in the world and most children who test positive don’t show symptoms. As well, infection rates are lower for individuals below the age of 19, which is similar to SARS and MERS (COVID-19’s sister viruses).

According to the WHO’s COVID-19 mission in China, only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger. As of the study date February 20th, 78% of the cases reported were ages 30 to 69. The WHO hypothesizes this is for a biological reason and isn’t related to lifestyle or exposure.
Even when we looked at households, we did not find a single example of a child bringing the infection into the household and transmitting to the parents. It was the other way around. And the children tend to have a mild disease,” said Van Kerkhove.
According to a WSJ article, children have a near-zero chance of becoming ill. They are more likely to get normal flu than COVID-19...
93% of people who think they are positive aren’t
Looking at the success in S. Korea and Singapore, the important tool in our war chest is measurement. If we are concerned about the general non-infected population, what is the probability those who show symptoms actually test positive? What is the chance that the cough from your neighbor is COVID-19? This “conversion rate” will show whether or not you have a cold (another coronavirus) or heading to isolation for two weeks. Global data shows that ~95% of people who are tested aren’t positive. The positivity rate varies by country.

Based on the initial results and the results from other countries, the total number of positive COVID-19 cases will increase as testing increases, but the fatality rate will continue to fall and the severity case mix will fall.
In general, the size of the US population infected with COVID-19 will be much smaller than originally estimated as most symptomatic individuals aren’t positive. 93% — 99% have other conditions.

Globally, the US has a long way to go to catch up in testing. As testing expands, the total number of cases will increase, but the mild to severe case ratio will decline dramatically.

1% of cases will be severe

Looking at the whole funnel from top to bottom, ~1% of everyone who is tested for COVID-19 with the US will have a severe case that will require a hospital visit or long-term admission.

~Source and full article with all data

Friday, March 20, 2020

The Quarantine and the Lord's Church

Our government is telling us we can't congregate in groups of more than 10. Churches everywhere are shutting down. Why? Because they might get sick. Might. And even then, it's an upper respiratory illness, not leprosy. I believe that churches should continue gathering together for corporate worship including the teaching of Scripture, prayer, and use of spiritual gifts. We are to obey God not man. We are to trust God, not man. Nor are we to fear getting an upper respiratory ailment. When no one we know personally has gotten this illness, when you look at the numbers for perspective (US deaths is 264 and CA has 39 million people, our city has 3 reported positive tests), it's an overreach of the government. Being reasonable, we should indeed wash our hands, don't touch anyone outside family, go ahead and stand a little further apart, take vitamins and supplements, drink liquids. This should give us a better immune system (for those who don't have an ongoing disease) and allow you to meet together as the Lord commands.

Please think about this: if you can go to the grocery store, Costco or Walmart during this quarantine to get food and toiletries, you can go to church to be fed spiritually and encouraged. If your church is too large (according to the government), then attend your small groups on the Lord's Day.

Are you willing to forsake the assembling together as a church indefinitely (CA's governor's word)? Do you realize they started off saying it was for 14 days, then it was 4 weeks, now it's looking like 10 weeks (the schools are closing until May 5th)? Ten weeks with no church, no gathering for the Lord's Table and self-judging for sin before Him, no exercising of your gifts and mutual edification in the Lord's flock?

The government thinks it can determine what is essential and non-essential. It has determined corporate worship as a church is a non-essential. But God has said it is essential. We must obey God rather than man (Acts 5:29)..

There's no such thing as a virtual church. None. The definition of "ecclessia" means a gathering together of persons called out from the world in a local body led by elders and deacons where the word is preached and taught,  people pray, hymns sung, the Lord's Table partaken, edifying the brothers and sisters. That requires physical presence. Video and live feeds are not that and you can't participate in the Lord's Table virtually either. Nor for that matter, can you participate in church discipline.

Think of this as a trial run to test yourselves to see how much you're willing to obey God rather than man, to see how you really define a church and what is essential, and how much you really trust the Lord. Because sooner rather than later, there will be true, physical enemies that will turn us into the police, throw us in prison, or try to kill us for being Christians. If you can't pass this easier test, what makes you think you'd pass that test?

Heb 10:21  and since we have a great priest over the house of God, 
Heb 10:22  let us draw near with a sincere heart in full assurance of faith, having our hearts sprinkled clean from an evil conscience and our bodies washed with pure water. 
Heb 10:23  Let us hold fast the confession of our hope without wavering, for He who promised is faithful; 
Heb 10:24  and let us consider how to stimulate one another to love and good deeds, 
Heb 10:25  not forsaking our own assembling together, as is the habit of some, but encouraging one another; and all the more as you see the day drawing near. 
Heb 10:26  For if we go on sinning willfully after receiving the knowledge of the truth, there no longer remains a sacrifice for sins, 
Heb 10:27  but a terrifying expectation of judgment and THE FURY OF A FIRE WHICH WILL CONSUME THE ADVERSARIES.

Act 2:42  They were continually devoting themselves to the apostles' teaching and to fellowship, to the breaking of bread and to prayer. 
Act 2:43  Everyone kept feeling a sense of awe; and many wonders and signs were taking place through the apostles. 
Act 2:44  And all those who had believed were together and had all things in common; 

Act 2:45  and they began selling their property and possessions and were sharing them with all, as anyone might have need. 

1Pe 3:13  Who is there to harm you if you prove zealous for what is good? 
1Pe 3:14  But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you are blessed. AND DO NOT FEAR THEIR INTIMIDATION, AND DO NOT BE TROUBLED, 
1Pe 3:15  but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, yet with gentleness and reverence; 
1Pe 3:16  and keep a good conscience so that in the thing in which you are slandered, those who revile your good behavior in Christ will be put to shame. 

1Pe 3:17  For it is better, if God should will it so, that you suffer for doing what is right rather than for doing what is wrong. 

Act 5:25  But someone came and reported to them, "The men whom you put in prison are standing in the temple and teaching the people!" 
Act 5:26  Then the captain went along with the officers and proceeded to bring them back without violence (for they were afraid of the people, that they might be stoned). 
Act 5:27  When they had brought them, they stood them before the Council. The high priest questioned them, 
Act 5:28  saying, "We gave you strict orders not to continue teaching in this name, and yet, you have filled Jerusalem with your teaching and intend to bring this man's blood upon us." 

Act 5:29  But Peter and the apostles answered, "We must obey God rather than men. 

For some quarantine levity

For the Wuhan Virus quarantine....

A collection of several funny tweets of cats showing the art of self-isolation. Made me literally lol.

When you can't get to gym or it's too cold outside (or some countries are on solid lockdown):



Well, old girl, you’re about to have the busiest month of your life:


Source for this:
Mom sent a picture of how their street is socializing

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Sin Is Theoretical To Evangelical Leaders

Evangelical elders, professors, speakers, and authors consider as a theoretical issue in themselves and their friends, family, and colleagues :

Jesus' return
The Great Tribulation
Truth (doctrine)
sexual immorality

It's all theory to them, otherwise they'd be humble and teachable, repent of actual sin when found, be discerning themselves (which requires absolute belief in all Scripture) and welcome discerners, plus they would practice biblical separation from errorists and unprincipled men even among their friends, fellow elders, colleagues, family.

By considering these things to be theoretical, they can then embrace doctrinal triage which then embraces sin triage (redefines sin) and even the gospel triage (bare minimum to believe but that would create a different, powerless gospel which is no gospel at all). And they throw out and persecute those who warn them. Acts 20, 2Cor 6, 2John 9-11.